The lopsided nature of many fixtures showed in the scorelines. At the 2022 World Cup, five group games were decided by three or more goals. At this tournament, that figure rose to 18. The group stage has averaged 2.99 goals per game — the highest rate for any group stage since the 32-team format was introduced in 1998, topping Brazil 2014's 2.83. The tournament is on course to record the highest goals-per-game rate since Sweden 1958's 3.60.
The third-place qualifying system also created unfairness. Scotland and South Korea, for example, both finished on three points midweek but had to wait until Saturday to learn their fate — because results in later-finishing groups determined whether they advanced. Senegal knew exactly what they needed: a big win against Iraq. A 5-0 victory secured their place. Teams in earlier groups had no such clarity or control.
The final group-stage matches between Austria and Algeria — a 3-3 draw that eliminated Iran — and Australia and Paraguay — a 0-0 draw where both teams knew they were through — illustrated the risk of games where mutual advancement incentivises caution. Neither fixture had a shot on goal after the 68th minute until stoppage time provided brief drama.
The verdict
With more goals than any tournament since Sweden 1958, the raw numbers flatter the format. The expansion has genuinely created space for new stories, new nations, and new stars. But the group stage has felt less like a competitive crucible and more like a lengthy qualifying process — 72 games to whittle 48 teams down to the 32 that will now contest what resembles the old World Cup format. The real tournament, many will argue, starts now.
