Bayan wasanni biyar na sabuwar kakar Premier League, jadawalin farko yana ba da labari ɗaya ne kawai. Shekara guda da ta gabata, Liverpool na kan gaba da nasarori biyar daga biyar, kuma Tottenham Hotspur sun kasance na uku — duk da haka, ƙungiyoyin biyu sun ƙare kakar a wurare mafi ƙasa, na biyar da na goma sha bakwai bi da bi. A wannan lokaci, jadawalin yana yin hoto ne fiye da hukunci.

Expected goals (xG) yana ba da gilashi mai kaifin gani. Wannan ma'auni yana auna yawan damammaki da ingancin su da ƙungiya ke ƙirƙirawa da karɓarwa, yana barin ɗaukar burin, aikin gatari, da sa'a, don bayyana yadda ƙungiyoyi ke wasa da gaske. Tarihin Premier League yana nuna kullum cewa ƙungiyoyi da ke mamaye wasanninsu a tsawon lokaci su ne ke tattara mafi yawan maki.

Ya fi dacewa a cire burin fanareti daga bincike — yanke hukunci na alkalai da kurakuran tsaro suna gurbata hoton ingancin kai harin da tsaro na gaske, musamman a farkon kakar.

Arsenal a gaba duk da faduwa a hannun Brighton

Champions Arsenal sun sha mafi munin shan kashi a cikin shekaru uku lokacin da Brighton & Hove Albion suka rinjaye su makon da ya wuce, amma har yanzu suna kan gaba a cikin xG difference. Manchester City ba su da nisa a baya dangane da mamayar wasanni, yayin da farkon ƙarfin Brentford na rashin sha kashi yana goyan bayan ƙididdigarsu ta ciki gaba ɗaya — ba wata sa'a a ciki.

Manchester United sun sha mummunan farawa a yawancin ma'auni, amma ƙungiyoyi uku kawai suka nuna xG difference mai girma fiye da su har yanzu. Wasanninsu sun kasance masu ƙarfi fiye da tattaunawar da ke kewaye da su. Nottingham Forest da Bournemouth suma sun nuna inganci fiye da wurinsu a jadawalin farko da ke nuni da shi.

A ƙarshen jadawalin aikin, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, da Newcastle United su ne ƙungiyoyin da ba su burge ba gaba ɗaya. Yanayin Newcastle watakila shi ne mafi mamaki — duk da kasancewa a rabin gaba na jadawalin, ƙididdigarsu ta ciki na damuwa. Villa, duk da haka, sun nuna a kakar da ta gabata cewa farawa mai ƙanƙanta ba ya ƙayyade kakar baki ɗaya; sun farfaɗo don ƙare na huɗu.

Daga cikin ƙungiyoyin da aka inganta, Hull City da Ipswich Town duka sun fara da ƙarfin gaske, suna nuna cewa ba ɗaya daga cikinsu zai wuce ba cikin shiru.

Harin Brighton yana jagorantar gasar

A gaba, Brighton & Hove Albion sun samar da damammaki na inganci fiye da kowace ƙungiya, sun riga Manchester City, Brentford, da Manchester United. Fiye da haka, sun maida waɗannan damammaki cikin inganci mai kisa — sun zira kwallaye 15 na wajen fanareti daga xG na 10.7.

Ƙungiyar da ta fi Brighton a cikin ƙwali mai kaifin gani ita ce Newcastle United — kuma abin ban mamaki shi ne Magpies suna da mafi ƙasancen xG a cikin gasar har yanzu. Sun zira kwallaye 9 daga xG na 4.5 kawai, suna ninka abin da ƙungiya ta al'ada za ta samar da irin waɗannan damammaki. Manajan ƙungiya Matthias Jaissle zai so Newcastle su samar da damammaki mafi yawa maimakon dogara ga irin wannan ƙwalli mai kaifin gani a cikin kakar.

A ɗaya gefen ma'aunin inganci, Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest, da Tottenham Hotspur kowannensu ya zira kwallaye uku ƙasa da xG ɗinsu ya kamata ya nuna. Ko wannan yana nuna matsala ta gaske na ƙwalli ko kawai lokacin rashin sa'a zai zama a fili yayin da makonni ke ci gaba.

Tsaron Arsenal har yanzu katanga ne

A tsaro, Arsenal sun kasance da nisa mafi kyaun ƙungiya a cikin gasa, hatta bayan shan kashi a hannun Brighton. Oliver Glasner yana da aiki da za a yi don inganta yawan zira kwallaye na Nottingham Forest, amma ya riga ya gina ƙarfin tsaro a City Ground. Andoni Iraola ya kuma kafa tushe mai ƙarfi a Liverpool.

A London, Crystal Palace, Fulham, da Chelsea duk sun kasance masu buɗe baya sosai. Chelsea, duk da haka, ba su da rauni kamar yadda kwallaye 12 da suka karɓa ke nuni da shi — ƙungiyar Xabi Alonso ta fuskanci damammaki masu haɗari na gaske ƙasa da adadin da ya nuna.

Aikin kai harin Brighton & Hove Albion na rashin wata shakka ya biya farashi a tsaro. Ƙungiyar Fabian Hurzeler sun kasance masu sa'a ga rashin karɓar ƙarin kwallaye, yayin da Everton da Leeds United kowannensu ya hana kwallaye uku fiye da xG ɗin da ya yi adawa da su ya annabta — ƙungiyoyin biyu suna daga cikin abubuwan tsaro mafi ƙarfi har yanzu.

Wasanni biyar ƙaramin samfuri ne, amma ƙididdigar ciki ta riga ta ba da hoton da ya fi bayyanawa na inda kowane kulob ke tsayawa da gaske yayin da makonni masu zuwa ke kusanto.