Wednesday's final Group A fixture at Mexico City's Estadio Azteca carries enormous stakes for the Czech Republic, who need a positive result to stand any chance of advancing to the knockout rounds of the tournament.

Mexico's position is already settled — Javier Aguirre's side have clinched top spot in the group and will progress as winners regardless of the outcome. The picture for the Czechs, however, is far more precarious.

What the Czech Republic need

The simplest path to the round of 32 for the Czech Republic runs through victory here, combined with South Africa defeating South Korea in the parallel kick-off. However, the margin of that South Africa result matters — the Czechs cannot afford to be leapfrogged on goal difference or goals scored.

A more realistic route, perhaps, is to win this match and hope their points tally earns them a berth among the eight best third-placed teams across all groups. Either way, anything short of three points at the Estadio Azteca looks almost certain to end their tournament.

Czech struggles in front of goal

The Czech Republic's campaign has been defined by an inability to protect leads. They went ahead against South Korea only to suffer a 2-1 defeat, and they dominated South Africa for 77 minutes before Teboho Mokoena levelled from the penalty spot. Mental resilience, then, will be tested again inside a packed home stadium.

There is one potential lifeline: Mexico may rotate their squad with an eye on the knockout stage. Crucially, South Korea cannot overhaul Mexico at the group summit even if they finish level on points, as head-to-head record takes precedence over goal difference — meaning Aguirre has flexibility in his team selection.

Mexico's momentum a concern

Yet resting players looks unlikely. The passion visible in Mexico's goal celebrations speaks to what representing the co-hosts in front of a home World Cup crowd means to their squad. Aguirre will likely want his side sharp and confident heading into the knockout phase.

Mexico have looked composed and dangerous throughout the group stage, while the Czech Republic have struggled to find their rhythm. The atmosphere at the Estadio Azteca will only amplify the challenge for Miroslav Koubek's side.

Score prediction: Czech Republic 1-2 Mexico