Thomas Tuchel's tenure as England manager enters its defining early test as the Three Lions open their FIFA World Cup 2026 Group L campaign against Croatia at AT&T; Stadium in Texas.

The draw handed England a group featuring two familiar opponents — Croatia and Panama — both of whom they faced in Russia in 2018. Croatia, in particular, carry significant history with England, having defeated them 2-1 after extra time in the semi-final of that tournament, ending Gareth Southgate's deepest World Cup run.

However, Croatia have not managed a single victory against England across three subsequent competitive meetings, and the balance of power has shifted.

Modric's enduring presence

At the heart of Croatia's challenge, as ever, stands Luka Modric. The Ballon d'Or winner, now 40, continues to exert his influence at AC Milan following a storied career spanning Dinamo Zagreb, Tottenham Hotspur, and Real Madrid. He is set to make his 200th senior international appearance against Panama in Croatia's second group match.

For England, neutralising Modric will be central to their ambitions. How their midfield manages to contain his progressive, purposeful style of play could well determine the outcome — and signal how far Tuchel's side have come in adopting a similar approach of their own.

Progressive play under Tuchel

England's encouraging friendly victory over Costa Rica hinted at a more intentional, possession-based game — precisely the quality many felt was absent during the big-occasion matches of the previous decade. Group L's opener offers Tuchel a concrete benchmark: Croatia may not arrive as genuine World Cup contenders, but they remain the stiffest challenge on paper in the group.

Complacency is the obvious danger for both sides. On paper, England and Croatia should each advance to the round of 32 regardless of this result. Yet the risk of being caught out by Ghana later in the group stage is a real incentive to take the opening match seriously — and neither side needs much extra motivation to beat the other.

Score prediction: England 2-1 Croatia