As the FIFA World Cup kicks off in sweltering heat, coaches and analysts are grappling with an old question that now feels urgently relevant: how much does weather shape the way football is played — not just on matchday, but across entire generations of players?

The science behind heat and performance

A 2024 study of the UEFA Champions League, drawing on five seasons of data, found that rising air temperatures reduced the number of completed dribbles and counter-attacks that resulted in shots, while pushing players toward attempts from distance. Higher humidity compounded the dribbling problem further.

Those findings carry direct implications for the FIFA World Cup. England, under manager Thomas Tuchel, arrived in the tournament with a squad built around powerful, one-on-one wingers — Marcus Rashford, Anthony Gordon, Noni Madueke, and Bukayo Saka — who are also expected to press aggressively from the front. In cool English conditions, that model is devastatingly effective. In the heat, executing it for 90 minutes is a far greater challenge.

The same concern applies to the modern fashion for overlapping full-backs who burst forward into dangerous positions — a trend epitomised this season by Manchester City's Nico O'Reilly and Paris Saint-Germain's Nuno Mendes and Achraf Hakimi. The science suggests those explosive forward runs become increasingly difficult to sustain as temperatures climb.

Chelsea's Club World Cup blueprint

The solution many teams will turn to is a phase-based approach: controlling possession to preserve energy, then pressing in concentrated bursts rather than maintaining a relentless high line throughout. Chelsea demonstrated exactly that model at last summer's FIFA Club World Cup, held in the heat and humidity of the United States.

Then-manager Enzo Maresca guided Chelsea to victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the final, deploying an intense man-to-man press from the opening whistle. Chelsea surged to a 3-0 lead before the intensity inevitably faded — but by then, the contest was over.