Tunisia's World Cup 2026 campaign has taken a turbulent turn before it has barely begun. After a humbling 5-1 defeat to Sweden in their opening match, the Eagles of Carthage parted ways with coach Sabri Lamouchi — a decision made after just 90 minutes of tournament football that raises hard questions about how the appointment was made in the first place.

Into the breach steps Hervé Renard, one of African football's most recognisable figures thanks to his title-winning stints with Morocco and Zambia, as well as his time in charge of Saudi Arabia. His first task could scarcely be more demanding: a Group F fixture against Japan at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, with Tunisia's very survival in the tournament at stake.

Tunisia's backs against the wall

The heavy loss to Sweden has left Tunisia requiring a win while also hoping results elsewhere fall their way. A defeat here would eliminate them from World Cup 2026 entirely, leaving them with nothing but a dead rubber to play. Tunisia have been knocked out at the group stage in each of their last two World Cup appearances, and have never advanced beyond it in their history.

Renard, for all his experience and charisma, walks into a near-impossible situation in his very first match as Tunisia's new coach. The margin for error is zero.

Japan in the driving seat

Japan, meanwhile, approach this fixture from a position of quiet confidence. Hajime Moriyasu's side drew their opener against the Netherlands — a creditable result that keeps them in contention — and a win here would put them firmly on course for the round of 32.

The Samurai Blue displayed characteristic resilience against the Dutch, twice pulling level after conceding. That mental fortitude stood out all the more given Japan had kept five consecutive clean sheets prior to the tournament, recording victories over Ghana, Bolivia, Scotland, England, and Iceland in their build-up, following a 3-2 win against Brazil before that.

Japan's football federation has made no secret of its long-term ambition to produce a World Cup-winning team in the decades ahead, and performances like the one against the Netherlands suggest the direction of travel is right. With a potential third group game against Sweden still to come, Moriyasu has options — but three points against Tunisia would make that match largely academic.

Prediction: Tunisia 0-1 Japan

Japan are clear favourites and should have enough quality and composure to see off a Tunisia side in crisis. Renard's managerial magic is real, but even he cannot conjure a transformation overnight. Expect Japan to edge a tight, tense encounter and move to the brink of qualification.