Sweden entered the FIFA World Cup 2026 with momentum, routing Tunisia in their opening match before a commanding Netherlands side halted their progress in matchday two. Now, with Graham Potter's squad needing a result to secure their knockout berth, they face Japan in what could be a pivotal Group F finale.

Sweden's rocky road to the group stage

Sweden qualified for the tournament through the Nations League back-door and subsequent play-offs — a route that raised questions about their readiness at this level. They answered some of those doubts with a convincing win over Tunisia, but the Netherlands exposed their limitations and left them scrambling heading into the final matchday.

With 12 goals across their first two matches, Sweden have at least provided entertainment. The question now is whether their attack can trouble a Japan side that has proved difficult to break down.

Japan's case for the favourites tag

Japan's 2-2 draw against the Netherlands was a hard-earned result that cemented their status as genuine contenders in Group F. Built on technical discipline and a squad populated with players from Europe's top leagues, the Samurai Blue are no surprise package to those who have followed them closely.

A victory here would secure top spot in the group and, potentially, a more favourable path through the Round of 32. That incentive gives Japan every reason to push for three points rather than settle for anything less.

The Sweden threat cannot be dismissed

Sweden do carry individual match-winners. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres are forwards capable of altering a contest on their own, and discounting them entirely before kick-off would be a mistake. Potter's side need only a point to effectively guarantee progression, which could shape their approach — sitting compact and waiting for moments of individual brilliance.

Japan, however, enter this tie with greater momentum and a sharper tactical identity. A narrow win for the Samurai Blue looks the likeliest outcome.

Prediction: Japan 2-1 Sweden