Manchester City are set to receive a points deduction severe enough to relegate them to the Championship, according to a report by Oliver Holt of The Mail — a punishment that could also extend into the following season.

The findings come amid the club's ongoing independent commission hearing, in which City face more than 100 charges of breaching Premier League financial rules across a nine-year period between 2009 and 2018.

What the alleged breaches involve

The Premier League contends that City arranged fraudulent contracts with commercial partners that misrepresented the true nature of agreements, concealed their actual financial position from auditors and regulators, and repeatedly failed to meet their duties of co-operation and good faith with the league.

City have firmly denied any wrongdoing and insist they hold what they describe as "irrefutable evidence" that will vindicate them on appeal.

Severity of the expected punishment

Holt reports that sources close to the process have indicated the most likely outcome is a heavy points deduction — one large enough to guarantee City's relegation from the Premier League — coupled with a substantial fine. A scenario in which City are expelled from the top flight entirely and forced to restart in League Two has been described as unlikely.

Crucially, insiders suggest a further points deduction for next season is also on the table, which could effectively confine City to the Championship for at least a second campaign. Should the English Football League be asked to accept that sanction, it is considered probable that it would comply.

Holt adds that the Premier League is pressing to announce the punishment before City's appeal is resolved — a process not expected to conclude before the end of January.

Impact on the title race

The revelation arrives at a complicated moment for City, who currently sit top of the Premier League having won all seven of their league fixtures this season under manager Enzo Maresca. If a relegation-level deduction is confirmed, that position would become meaningless.

For rivals Arsenal, Brighton & Hove Albion, Chelsea, and Liverpool — all pursuing City at the summit — the news represents a dramatic shift in the shape of the title race.

City are also set to host AEK Athens in the UEFA Champions League in the coming days, though questions now loom far larger than any single match result.