Manchester City remain confident of limiting their punishment following a landmark guilty verdict last month — and their hopes rest on a single, decisive line of argument.

An independent Commission ruled last month that Manchester City had breached Premier League financial rules across nine seasons, finding the club guilty on all charges, including multiple failures to cooperate with the league's investigation. Premier League chief executive Richard Masters described the situation bluntly, saying the club "systematically broke Premier League Rules for nearly a decade" and that upholding those rules was essential to protecting the integrity of the competition.

The core argument

Manchester Evening News chief Manchester City writer Simon Bajkowski, speaking on the Talking City podcast, outlined why the club believe they still have a credible path through the appeal process. According to Bajkowski, City "don't need to overturn everything" — instead, their appeal hinges on disproving one central claim related to their funding structure.

"It seems like City have a mountain to overcome — and it is a mountain, but it's not a multitude of things: it's basically a core argument," Bajkowski said.

The crux of that argument concerns the origin of money paid to Manchester City's sponsors. The club's position is that funds flowed from the Abu Dhabi government directly to sponsors, who then paid Manchester City — rather than money originating from the club itself cycling back through sponsors. If proven, that distinction would mean no rule was broken.

"Their evidence shows that the money did not come from Man City to the sponsors to then go back into Man City's books. It came from the Abu Dhabi government to the sponsors, which then paid Manchester City," Bajkowski explained.

A 'different set of eyes'

Bajkowski reported that people at City were "stunned" by the verdict — partly because experienced legal observers present throughout the 11-week original hearing had left feeling the case had not gone against them. The appeal will not be a full rehearing; instead, a new three-person commission will examine the original decision.

"The reason why it stunned people at City when they were found guilty of so many things is that these people are experienced in knowing how a case was going, and the feeling after those 11 weeks was certainly not, 'Well, we've lost on every count,'" Bajkowski said.

City have also raised concerns about procedural fairness, including what Bajkowski described as criticism of the length of time taken to reach a verdict — and whether such a delay could undermine the reliability of witness testimony.

"There is a sense that a different set of eyes may have a different view," Bajkowski concluded.

Manchester City's next Premier League fixture takes them to Anfield, where they face Liverpool following the international break.