Five games into the new Premier League season, it may feel premature to read too much into the standings — but history suggests the table is already more meaningful than it appears.

Looking back at each of the last 10 seasons, over two-thirds of clubs ended the campaign within four places of where they stood after five games. Of 200 teams tracked across that period, 138 landed within that margin, and 27 finished in exactly the same position 33 games later.

The title race

Manchester City sit top with five wins from five, while Arsenal are among the early frontrunners. History points to both as genuine contenders — the eventual champions have been in the top two after five games in each of the last four seasons.

Being top at this stage is no guarantee of glory, however. The side leading after five games has won the title just once in the last six seasons — Manchester City in 2023-24. Chelsea in 2018-19, Arsenal in 2022-23, and Liverpool last season all began with perfect records, yet none claimed the trophy.

It is also worth noting that Manchester City won their first five matches in both 2015-16 under Manuel Pellegrini and in Pep Guardiola's debut 2016-17 season, yet the title went elsewhere on both occasions.

A significant asterisk hangs over the current table, however: Manchester City were found guilty of the majority of Premier League charges brought against them. The club have appealed and, should sanctions be upheld, the standings could be dramatically reshaped.

Relegation battle

At the other end of the table, the picture is bleaker — and more reliable. The side propping up the Premier League after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons.

Tottenham currently occupy that bottom spot. While their supporters can point to 2008-09 — when the club recovered from an identical position, replaced manager Juande Ramos with Harry Redknapp, and still finished eighth — the trend is an uncomfortable one. Tottenham have also narrowly avoided the drop in each of the last two campaigns.

At least one of the bottom three after five games has gone down in each of the last eight seasons, meaning Tottenham, Fulham, and Coventry will all be looking over their shoulders between now and May.

The danger zone may extend further. In each of the last three seasons, all three relegated clubs were inside the bottom six after five games — a bracket that also currently includes Bournemouth, Aston Villa, and Crystal Palace.

Notable exceptions

History does offer some caution against drawing firm conclusions. Last season, Aston Villa rose from the bottom three after five games all the way to a top-four finish, while Tottenham fell in the opposite direction to 17th place.

The last teams outside the bottom six at this stage to be relegated were Leeds United and Southampton in 2022-23, who sat 7th and 9th respectively after five games. Hull and Ipswich — currently 8th and 11th — will be hoping that precedent still holds.

The Premier League season has barely begun, but the foundations of the final table may already be in place.