Scotland enter the final round of Group C fixtures knowing a victory over Brazil on Wednesday (23:00 BST) would secure automatic progression to the knockout stage — but even if Steve Clarke's side fall short, a third-place finish could still keep them in the tournament.

In this expanded 48-team World Cup, 32 sides advance to the round of 16, with eight of the best third-placed teams from across the groups also going through. That makes elimination harder than progression — except, crucially, Scotland find themselves in one of the most demanding groups, alongside Morocco and Brazil.

Where do Scotland currently stand?

With three points and a goal difference of zero after two matches, Scotland sit second in the third-place rankings — level with Sweden, who top that table. The sides currently outside the top eight are the Czech Republic, Ecuador, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Senegal.

A win against Brazil sends Scotland through automatically. A draw would all but guarantee it. A defeat, however, introduces considerable uncertainty.

How critical is goal difference?

According to Opta, Scotland's chances of progressing depend heavily on the margin of any defeat. A third-place finish with a goal difference of zero carries a 95 percent chance of reaching the knockout rounds.

Lose to Brazil by a single goal — dropping to -1 — and that probability falls to 84 percent. The numbers decline sharply from there: 63 percent at -2, 42 percent at -3, 27 percent at -4, and 19 percent at -5. A heavy defeat in Miami could prove costly.

The problem with playing early

Scotland's final group match takes place on Wednesday, meaning they face an agonising wait to learn their fate. If they lose to Brazil and finish on three points, they may not know whether they have survived until around 05:00 BST on Sunday, when Group J concludes.

Teams playing later in the week will benefit from knowing exactly what result they need, potentially playing for a draw or managing a defeat's scoreline to protect goal difference — an advantage Scotland simply will not have.

Results Scotland will need to watch

Should Scotland lose and finish on three points, a cascade of results elsewhere will determine their fate. Their ideal scenario involves as many groups as possible ending with a third-placed team below three points.

In Group A, Scotland benefit if Mexico beat the Czech Republic and South Korea beat South Africa, leaving the third-place finisher on just one point. In Group B, a draw between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar — three hours before Scotland face Brazil — would leave both sides on two points, which is favourable.

Scotland will also want the USA to take at least a point against Turkey to prevent Turkey from complicating the standings. In Group E, if Ecuador and Curacao fail to win against Germany and Ivory Coast respectively, neither can exceed Scotland's three-point total.

In Group F, a convincing Japan win over Sweden would help, as a point for Sweden would push that third-place slot to four points. In Group G, an Egypt win over Iran ensures the third-placed finisher cannot match Scotland's tally. Spain beating Uruguay in Group H and a draw between Senegal and Iraq in Group I would both work in Scotland's favour.

Group J carries its own intrigue: Austria and Algeria, sitting second and third on three points each, face each other — a draw would leave a third-placed team on four points, which Scotland want to avoid. They would also want Argentina to avoid defeat against Jordan.

In Group K, Uzbekistan would need a very large win over DR Congo — combined with a heavy Scotland defeat — to leapfrog Clarke's side. And in Group L, a Croatia point or more against Ghana would again put a third-place finisher on four points, so Scotland's preferred outcome is a Ghana victory alongside Panama failing to beat England.