Germany scoring seven, Lionel Messi chasing a second World Cup winners' medal, Cristiano Ronaldo under pressure to deliver — the narratives are already flying. But anyone who has watched enough World Cups knows one thing: the tournament has a habit of making fools of the overconfident.

With the 2026 group stage still unfolding, and the field yet to be trimmed from 48 teams down to the 32 that will contest the knockout rounds, the story of this summer is very much still being written.

History's most important lesson

The single most powerful reminder of World Cup unpredictability came in Qatar in 2022, when reigning champions Argentina were beaten by Saudi Arabia in their very first match. Spain suffered a similar shock in 2010, falling to Switzerland before recovering to lift the trophy in Johannesburg. Two of the last four World Cup winners lost their opening game.

That is not a footnote — it is a fundamental truth about how this competition works. Teams evolve, coaches adapt, and players who were not even in the starting eleven on day one can end up being the decisive figures by the final.

The players who emerged along the way

In 2022, Alexis Mac Allister did not start Argentina's first match. By the third game he was named man of the match — the same fixture in which Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez made their first appearances in the starting lineup. All three were central to Argentina's eventual triumph.

Spain's 2010 winners discovered during the tournament that they needed Pedro's runs in behind to stretch defences, which meant David Silva had to make way. The squad that lifted the trophy in Johannesburg looked meaningfully different from the one that opened the tournament.

Perhaps no story captures this better than Sir Geoff Hurst, who did not even feature until England's quarter-final in 1966, replacing the injured Jimmy Greaves. Since Brazil's celebrated 1970 side, no winning team has fielded an identical lineup from their first match to their last.

Rotations, formations, and reinventions

West Germany in 1974 brought in Rainer Bonhof, who set up the winning goal in the final. Argentina changed both wingers four years later, with Daniel Bertoni among the new faces — and he scored the goal that made it 3-1 in the final against Netherlands.

Italy in 1982 entered the tournament without winning a single match in the opening group stage, yet Paolo Rossi went on to claim both the Golden Boot and the Golden Ball, having failed to score in any of Italy's first four fixtures. France's Thierry Henry scored three times in his side's first two games in 1998 — and then watched the final as an unused substitute.

Mario Gotze started Germany's opening match in 2014 and ended up on the bench for the final against Argentina — but came on to score the extra-time winner. The tournament had, once again, rewritten its own script.

The 1986 Argentina story