Group G at the FIFA World Cup 2026 reaches a decisive juncture this evening, and Belgium's hopes of advancing to the knockout rounds are far from guaranteed. Standing in their way are New Zealand — ranked lowest among the tournament's nations — but the All Whites have proved throughout this competition that bare statistics tell only half the story.

New Zealand's unlikely threat

Belgium enter the fixture having scored just one goal across their group-stage campaign, a troubling return for a side that has long been labelled a golden generation. New Zealand, meanwhile, have conceded five times — yet they have repeatedly shown the defensive resilience and collective spirit to compete with stronger opposition.

Against both Iran and Egypt, the sides that have pushed Belgium hardest in Group G, the All Whites held firm for long stretches. That fighting quality should not be dismissed lightly. Chris Wood presents a genuine aerial threat at the top of the pitch, while Elijah Just supplies the technical quality behind him. A centre-back pairing that blends youth and experience gives New Zealand a structure difficult to break down.

Belgium's familiar shortcomings

Kevin de Bruyne and Jeremy Doku — past and present of Manchester City — represent the most dangerous outlet Belgium possess, yet neither has consistently produced at this tournament. The Red Devils have too often wilted under pressure on the world stage, a pattern stretching back through years of near-misses, and there is little evidence to suggest this group-stage closer will be any different.

Should New Zealand take an early lead through their aerial game, the likelihood of Belgium finding a composed response appears slim. The pressure of a must-win situation has historically exposed this squad's limitations rather than unlocked their potential.

The prediction

Elsewhere in Group G, Iran and Egypt are battling to top the group and set up a potential Round of 16 meeting with the United States — a contest that adds further complexity to the qualification picture. Belgium must win; a draw sends them home.

The All Whites are capable of snatching the lead and holding it deep into the match. Ultimately, however, nerves are likely to cost them in the closing stages, allowing Belgium to salvage a share of the spoils. Predicted score: New Zealand 1-1 Belgium, with Chris Wood breaking the deadlock and Kevin de Bruyne securing a late equaliser for the Red Devils.