With the FIFA World Cup 2026 on the horizon, debate is already swirling around which striker will walk away with the Golden Boot — the award given to the tournament's top goalscorer. Scoring goals and winning the tournament are not always linked, yet the prize remains one of football's most coveted individual honours.

A trophy steeped in history

The roll call of previous Golden Boot winners reads like a who's who of the game's greatest forwards. Legends such as Just Fontaine, Eusebio, Gerd Muller, Mario Kempes, Paolo Rossi, and Gary Lineker all claimed the prize, while more recent winners include Ronaldo, Miroslav Klose, Davor Suker, and Thomas Muller. Muller, now playing for the Vancouver Whitecaps in MLS, retired from international duty in 2024 and did not make Germany's squad for this edition.

Two previous winners remain active on the international stage — and they sit at the top of the betting markets. Kylian Mbappe of France and England's Harry Kane, winners of the last two editions respectively, are the clear favourites. A third former winner, Colombia's James Rodriguez — who claimed the award at Brazil 2014 as a 22-year-old — is now 34 and also plays in MLS, though few expect him to challenge at the summit this time around.

A record yet to be broken

Remarkably, no player has ever won the Golden Boot at two separate World Cups. Should Mbappe or Kane claim the prize in 2026, they would make history. Mbappe came agonisingly close to doing the double in 2022, when France lost to Argentina on penalties in the final despite his remarkable individual tally.

Another curiosity surrounds the relationship between the Golden Boot and the World Cup trophy itself. Only four times in 22 editions has the tournament's top scorer also lifted the World Cup. Garrincha and Vava shared the honour as Brazil won in 1962; Mario Kempes achieved it outright for Argentina in 1978; Paolo Rossi did so for Italy in 1982; and Ronaldo completed the feat for Brazil in 2002. It is a rare double that no player has managed in over two decades.

Veterans and prodigies alike

Among the other leading contenders, Lionel Messi stands out — not least because he has never won the Golden Boot despite being arguably the finest player of his generation. The Argentine icon, who led Argentina to glory at Qatar 2022, claimed the Silver Boot that tournament. Now 38, and turning 39 during the knockout rounds, Messi plays his club football in MLS. His participation at a sixth World Cup would itself be historic.

Cristiano Ronaldo, equally, has never claimed the Golden Boot, a notable absence from his otherwise remarkable record. Now 41, Ronaldo would also be competing at a record-equalling sixth World Cup. That both men remain credible contenders at this stage of their careers speaks to their extraordinary longevity.

At the opposite end of the age spectrum, Spain's Lamine Yamal — who dazzled at Euro 2024 as a 16-year-old — arrives at this tournament at 18, with a prolific club season at Barcelona behind him. Should Spain progress deep into the knockout stages, Yamal's goal tally could mount quickly.

Erling Haaland of Manchester City and Norway carries perhaps the most jaw-dropping scoring rate of any contender: 55 goals in 49 international appearances. The caveat is how far Norway advance, since a first-round exit would severely limit his chances. Sweden's Alexander Isak, returning from a lengthy injury layoff, faces a similar situation.

Elsewhere, Brazil's Vinicius Junior and Raphinha, Argentina's Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, and France's Ousmane Dembele all carry genuine Golden Boot credentials. Whoever ultimately claims the award will join an elite lineage — but history suggests their nation is unlikely to be lifting the World Cup alongside them.