Two of the favourites for the FIFA World Cup 2026 — Spain and the Netherlands — have both drawn their opening matches, rekindling a debate as old as the tournament itself: does a poor start really matter?

Champions who stumbled early

History offers a reassuring answer. When Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia 2-1 in the 2022 group stage, social media quickly pointed to Spain's opening defeat in 2010 — a 1-0 loss to Switzerland in Group H — as proof that early setbacks need not be fatal. Both Spain and Argentina went on to lift the trophy.

Wind the clock back further and the evidence only grows stronger. Italy's 1982 World Cup campaign stands as perhaps the most striking example of a champion side getting off to a dismal start. With the tournament expanding from 16 to 24 teams — a scale identical to this edition — Italy drew all three of their group stage matches: 0-0 against Poland, then 1-1 stalemates against Peru and Cameroon. They still advanced, and ended the tournament by beating West Germany 3-1 in the final, having already eliminated defending champions Argentina 2-1 along the way.

In 1986, Diego Maradona's Argentina scraped past Uruguay 1-0 in their opener before embarking on arguably the greatest individual World Cup campaign the sport has seen. Germany's march to the 2014 title, by contrast, began with a thunderous 4-0 demolition of Portugal — one that included a Thomas Muller hat-trick and a red card for Pepe — but dominant opening results proved no more predictive of ultimate success than cautious ones.

Netherlands tipped to go all the way

The Netherlands' draw arrives with an intriguing footnote. German economist Joachim Klement, who accurately predicted the eventual winner at each of the previous three World Cups using the same statistical model, has named the Netherlands as his pick to lift the trophy in 2026.

If that prediction holds, it would add another chapter to the tournament's long tradition of late bloomers — teams that shed early caution, build momentum, and peak when it matters most.

The opener is not the verdict

From Italy's three draws in 1982 to Argentina's shock defeat in 2022, the World Cup has repeatedly shown that the opening match is the least reliable guide to a team's eventual fate. With FIFA World Cup 2026 still in its earliest stages and the field wide open, Spain, the Netherlands, and any other side that has stumbled can take genuine comfort from the record books.