The Opta supercomputer has predicted that Spain will defeat defending champions Argentina in the FIFA World Cup 2026 final, to be played in New Jersey on Sunday. Opta gives Spain a 59 percent chance of lifting the trophy, leaving Argentina with a 41 percent probability of retaining the title they won in Qatar.

Messi leads Argentina to another final

Argentina reached the final in dramatic fashion, overcoming England in their semi-final in Atlanta. Anthony Gordon gave England the lead, but with the tie slipping away from them, Lionel Messi — at 39, almost certainly playing his last World Cup — delivered two assists in the 85th and 92nd minutes to send his side through in a breathtaking late comeback.

It was a familiar script for Argentina at this tournament. They required extra time on two separate occasions, against Cabo Verde and Switzerland, and staged late comebacks in knockout ties against Egypt and England. Their unbeaten run in World Cup football now stretches to 13 matches, with their last defeat coming against Saudi Arabia at the 2022 edition in Qatar.

Spain eliminate France on the other side of the draw

Spain reached the final by ending France's ambitions of a third consecutive final appearance. In Dallas, goals from Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro secured a 2-0 victory that silenced Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele in a result that few had anticipated.

Luis de la Fuente's side have been the more composed of the two finalists. Spain have conceded just one goal across the entire tournament — compared to Argentina's seven — and, aside from a pair of late Mikel Merino winners that kept nerves alive, they have progressed with relative control.

Spain chasing a first final since their 2010 triumph

The stakes are enormous for Spain. This is their first World Cup final since 2010, when they claimed their one and only men's world title. In the intervening years, they fell no further than the round of 16, making their run to New Jersey all the more remarkable.

Should the supercomputer's prediction prove correct, it would be Spain's fifth major honour since 2008 — a dynasty-defining achievement. For Argentina and Messi, however, the incentive to prove the algorithms wrong could hardly be greater.