Scotland claimed their first World Cup victory in 36 years on Wednesday, edging Haiti 1-0 in Boston to sit top of Group C ahead of Brazil and Morocco. It is the outcome every Scotland supporter dreamed of — but the qualification picture remains far from straightforward.

The doomsday scenario

Before celebrating too hard, Scotland fans must confront the worst case. Should Steve Clarke's side lose their remaining two fixtures against Morocco and Brazil, their fate would rest on goal difference — and that single-goal margin already rules out any positive goal difference from three points.

According to Football Meets Data, a goal difference of -1 gives Scotland an 87.5% chance of progressing as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the 12 groups. That probability drops to 69.4% at -2 and falls below 50% at -3. In short, every goal conceded in the final two matches could prove decisive.

Scotland's attack did not inspire confidence in Boston. Their expected goals tally was just 1.05, with John McGinn's winner and a Scott McTominay effort that struck the post the sum total of genuine threats. Set-piece delivery was particularly poor, registering an xG of zero from dead-ball situations. The defence, at least, held firm under real pressure to record a clean sheet.

A point could be enough

Any optimism centres on Friday's rematch with Morocco in Boston. Clarke's team need only avoid defeat to put themselves in an extremely strong position — a clean sheet in that game would, in all likelihood, book their place in the last 32 for the first time in the nation's history.

Brazil, meanwhile, were far from convincing in New Jersey under Carlo Ancelotti, coming from behind to salvage a draw. Scotland will hold no fear of either opponent, though they must improve their passing significantly — an 82% pass-completion rate against Haiti, ranked 83rd in the world, will not cut it against stronger opposition.