FIFA's insistence that the FIFA World Cup 2026 passed without any suspicious betting activity has been thrown into question after an independent monitoring body flagged seven potential irregularities across the tournament's 104 matches.

The governing body's Integrity Task Force announced on Tuesday that no signs of match-fixing or irregular gambling patterns had been detected during the June and July competition. However, those findings stand in direct contrast to conclusions reached by the Group of Copenhagen — an independent organisation linked to the Council of Europe whose mandate covers the prevention of match-fixing in sport.

Seven yellow notices issued

Though the Group of Copenhagen's full report has yet to be published, sources familiar with its contents told The Athletic that the body's integrity monitoring operation had issued seven yellow notices during the tournament. Each notice represents instances showing "several different indications of [betting] irregularities."

Betting expert Christian Kalb offered important context. "The Group of Copenhagen's notices can be explained by atypical behaviours such as changes in odds or hedging liquidities, there are many explanations that are not manipulations," he told The Athletic. "The major problem is when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues. When we speak of prediction markets, we can detect some unusual behaviours but we must be very careful as they can be used for hedging markets."

What was flagged

Among the seven notices was a market on whether Folarin Balogun would feature for United States against Belgium, raised after Balogun had received a red card in the match against Bosnia and Herzegovina. That market stood out given that 14 other players were sent off across the tournament without triggering comparable markets.

The Group of Copenhagen also highlighted Themba Zwane's red card in South Africa's opening fixture against co-hosts Mexico, as well as the extended VAR review that ultimately ruled out Ferran Torres' goal for Spain against Saudi Arabia during the group stage.

Meanwhile, Polymarket — the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform linked to the flagged Balogun market — reportedly absorbed more than £3.5 million in bets on Cape Verde beating or drawing with Spain in the group stage. That match ended in a shock 0-0 draw.

No direct allegations — but questions remain

Crucially, none of the seven yellow notices constitute a direct allegation of match manipulation, and the handful of fixtures placed under increased surveillance during the final round of group stage games did not trigger further alarm bells.

The scale of betting on the FIFA World Cup 2026 was staggering. According to The Athletic, the Group of Copenhagen estimates that $240 billion was wagered across the tournament — roughly double the volume recorded at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The expansion of the competition from 64 to 104 matches accounts for much of that increase, and analysts note that some degree of statistical irregularity across such a vast event is difficult to avoid entirely.

Given that context, FIFA's categorical claim that no irregular betting patterns were observed looks increasingly hard to sustain.