Four teams remain at the FIFA World Cup 2026, and not one of them is a surprise guest. The four highest-ranked nations in international football — all former champions — are contesting the semi-finals. First up, on Tuesday in Dallas, France take on Spain in what promises to be the defining fixture of the tournament.

The favourites and their fearsome attack

France have entered this tournament with one narrative chasing them: that nobody can stop them. Their front four of Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, and Desire Doue is as formidable a combination as any in recent World Cup history. Mbappe leads the Golden Boot standings, level with Lionel Messi on goals but edging ahead thanks to three assists. France have scored 16 goals — second most at this tournament — and lead all teams in shots on target and expected goals, with an xG of 14.34.

Only Norway have kept Mbappe off the scoresheet this summer. Yet even when he is contained, Didier Deschamps' side possess enough firepower to punish opponents through other routes. France became the first team since Brazil in 2002 to have two players reach five goals in a single tournament edition — a feat England's Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have since matched.

Why Spain are no ordinary opponent

Spain arrive in Dallas not as underdogs but as a side with a legitimate claim to ending France's march to the final. No team at this World Cup has dominated possession as thoroughly as Luis de la Fuente's side. Their final-third passing is exceptional — they are the only nation to record over 1,000 final-third passes, completing them at an accuracy of 83.9 percent. By starving opponents of the ball, Spain also protect their own goal, arriving in the semi-finals with an outstanding defensive record.

The modern iteration of Spain's style is more direct than the patient tiki-taka of earlier generations. Quicker vertical transitions allow their wide attackers to exploit 1v1 situations on the flanks — a crucial dynamic when Lamine Yamal is your most dangerous weapon. The Barcelona forward leads all attacking players with 12 shot-ending carries this tournament.

Rodri and Yamal hold the keys

Spain's route to victory runs through their midfield. Rodri and Pedri are the tournament's most effective passers in the attacking phase, and Rodri doubles as a ball-carrier, driving the play forward to release Yamal into space. If Spain can control the tempo in the sweltering Dallas heat, their technically superior midfield should be able to manage France's supply lines.

France's midfield pair of Manu Kone and Adrien Rabiot are less dynamic by comparison, though the quality ahead of them masks those limitations admirably. Spain must be positionally disciplined to exploit that gap before France's forwards render the midfield battle irrelevant.

Spain's concerns and the caveat

Spain have not yet hit their peak at this tournament. Lamine Yamal has operated below his best, Nico Williams has been restricted by injury, and Mikel Oyarzabal — who scored four goals against Saudi Arabia and Austria in the group stage — has been largely absent from decisive moments since. Spain have leaned on substitute Mikel Merino to edge past Portugal and Belgium in the knockout rounds, hardly the dominant performances their possession statistics suggest.

The match also falls on Bastille Day, France's national holiday — a symbolic detail that underlines just how much momentum Deschamps' side carry into this tie. France are the tournament favourites for good reason.

Yet Spain, when operating at their ceiling, are capable of neutralising any opponent. They dismantled France's claim to the 2010 World Cup title — winning it themselves — and possess the tools to do something similar on Tuesday. This semi-final is far from a foregone conclusion.