With the FIFA World Cup 2026 knockout rounds on the horizon — and a new last-32 stage added to the format — penalty shootouts are set to be more frequent than ever. Data from BBC Sport and Opta covering all 320 spot-kicks across 35 shootouts since 1982 reveals clear patterns in what separates winners from losers.

The best and worst nations

Argentina stand alone at the top, having won six of their seven World Cup shootouts, including the decisive one in the Qatar 2022 final against France. Germany have been nearly flawless — scoring 17 of 18 kicks — and Croatia have also won all four of theirs.

Spain, by contrast, have become the nation with the most missed World Cup shootout penalties — nine in total — after missing all three kicks against Morocco in 2022. They have now lost four of five shootouts. Japan, Mexico, and Romania have each lost both of their shootout appearances, while Belgium, South Korea, and Paraguay have converted every kick they have ever taken.

Individual standouts

Only Lionel Messi and Croatia's Luka Modric have scored in three separate World Cup shootouts, both maintaining a 100 percent record. Messi's collection includes a kick in the 2022 final against France. Italy's Roberto Baggio netted two of his three but will forever be remembered for the one he missed — the decisive kick in the 1994 final.

In goal, Danijel Subasic and Dominik Livakovic — both from the Croatian city of Zadar — each saved four penalties in World Cup shootouts, in 2018 and 2022 respectively. Portugal's Ricardo holds the highest save percentage at 75 percent, having faced just four kicks. Argentina's Emiliano Martinez saved only one in the 2022 final but used psychological pressure to help unsettle France's takers.

Going central is a bad idea

The data makes a compelling case for picking a side. Players who aim left or right score 71 to 72 percent of the time, compared with just 61.6 percent for those who go central. The key issue is not that central kicks are saved more often — in fact, goalkeepers stop fewer of them (19.2 percent) than kicks aimed to either side (22.6 percent). The problem is accuracy: 19.2 percent of central kicks miss the target entirely, compared with only 5.7 percent of side-aimed shots.

Does kick order matter?

Going first or second in a shootout carries no meaningful advantage — teams going first have won 17 shootouts and those going second have won 18. The first kicker for each team enjoys the highest success rate, at 72.9 percent, with the second and third kickers close behind at 71.5 percent each. The fourth-round kicker scores 64.2 percent of the time. Notably, the eighth taker overall — the second kicker in round four — has the lowest success rate at 59.4 percent, a pattern also seen in European Championship shootouts.

Strikers lead the way

Forwards score 75 percent of their spot-kicks in World Cup shootouts, the highest of any position. Midfielders convert 67.9 percent, and defenders 65 percent. No goalkeeper has yet stepped up in a World Cup shootout, and no shootout has progressed beyond the sixth round. Right-footed and left-footed players are almost equally accurate — 69.5 percent and 68.8 percent respectively — though 80 percent of all kicks are taken with the right foot.

Late substitutes for the shootout

The tactic of introducing players specifically for a shootout carries a mixed record. Of those who came on in the final five minutes of injury time, only two of five have scored. Paulo Dybala came on at the end of the 2022 final and converted for Argentina. In contrast, Badr Benoun and Pablo Sarabia — brought on by Morocco and Spain in the dying moments of their last-16 clash — both missed. England's Jamie Carragher netted but was ordered to retake in the 2006 quarter-final against Portugal, with Ricardo saving the second attempt. Pierre Littbarski is the rare success story from 1986, netting a late-sub penalty for West Germany against Mexico.

The most celebrated shootout substitute, however, remains the Netherlands' Tim Krul, who entered in the 121st minute against Costa Rica at the 2014 World Cup and saved two kicks. The Dutch went out in the next round when Krul was not used and Jasper Cillessen started in goal, saving nothing.