Argentina arrive at the FIFA World Cup 2026 chasing something no nation has achieved in over six decades: retaining the trophy on a different continent. The last side to defend the World Cup successfully was Brazil in 1962. For Lionel Messi, doing it again would represent the perfect final chapter of a remarkable career — but history offers a stark warning.

"I hope that Argentina can still do it," former Argentina captain Javier Zanetti tells Sky Sports. "Argentina arrive in this World Cup prepared with a good mentality and a good team. But it is very difficult to repeat it."

A brutal record for defending champions

France came close to retaining the trophy at the 2022 tournament in Qatar, yet even reaching the final was an exception. The three holders before them each crashed out at the group stage. Germany finished bottom of their group in 2018. Spain suffered a humiliating 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands in their opening match in 2014. Italy went out in the group stage in 2010, unable to beat Paraguay, Slovakia, or New Zealand.

Further back, France's defence in 2002 was arguably the most dismal of all. They lost their opener to Senegal, failed to score a single goal, and went home early. Even Brazil's quarter-final exit in 2006 is viewed, in context, as a relative success story.

Why holders so often fall short

The pattern is not accidental. Winning squads tend to stay together — coaches retain the players who delivered glory, and those players are reluctant to walk away. But time, inevitably, catches up. Marcello Lippi returned to coach Italy after winning in 2006 and leaned on veterans who had passed their peak. Fabio Cannavaro, his World Cup-winning captain, was 36 and no longer playing top-level club football. Upon Italy's elimination, journalist Maurizio Crosetti of La Repubblica was withering: "Cannavaro is a former player and almost all the others are cooked. We were world champions and we made the world laugh."

Vicente Del Bosque's Spain in 2014 were defending champions of three consecutive major tournaments, yet looked sluggish and one-dimensional in Brazil. Xabi Alonso and Xavi Hernandez both retired in the aftermath. Joachim Löw's Germany in 2018 repeated the mistake — Sami Khedira, once the engine of the midfield, was 31 and substituted twice before the hour mark. Mesut Özil, no longer the dynamic force of previous tournaments, never represented Germany again after the group exit.

The parallels with this Argentina squad

Ten of the starting eleven from Argentina's 2022 World Cup final triumph are returning for the FIFA World Cup 2026. The parallels with those fallen holders are uncomfortable. Nicolás Otamendi is now 38 and will join River Plate from Benfica after the tournament. Nicolás Tagliafico, the Lyon left-back, is 33. Alexis Mac Allister, despite being one of the younger members of the squad, looks a noticeably different, more conservative midfielder than the player whose driving run set up Ángel Di María's opening goal in the Qatar final.

And then there is Messi himself, now 37 and in his fourth season of Major League Soccer football. Yet the evidence suggests he remains effective. Argentina won the Copa America in 2024, topped South American qualifying with comfort, and Messi finished as the top scorer in qualification. "He is the best in history," Zanetti says. "It will be his last World Cup but he is still the captain. Having him on the pitch always gives you a certain sense of calm because you know that you have a player who can make the difference at any one moment."

Fresh faces offering hope

Argentina have not stood completely still. Nico Paz, whose performances helped Como qualify for the UEFA Champions League, has generated real excitement. Valentín Barco, still only 21, has forced his way into contention. Giuliano Simeone of Atlético Madrid provides Lionel Scaloni with another youthful option. "There is experience," Zanetti acknowledges. "But there are a lot of young players too. There is a mix."

Scaloni's relationship with Messi will be central to Argentina's campaign. "With the dialogue and trust they have, and the relationship they have built over the years, everything is very clear," Zanetti explains. "He will try to ensure that Messi can continue to be a key player at the World Cup."

Yet the scale of the ask is considerable. Retaining the trophy would require winning five knockout matches in 15 days. Messi will turn 38 during the tournament. History has not been kind to those who tried before him — but then again, very little about Messi's career has followed the rules of history.