Group H at the 2026 FIFA World Cup is heading into its final round of matches with an extraordinary degree of uncertainty — not a single position in the standings has been settled, and only three points separate the top side from the bottom.

Who can still top the group?

Spain, Uruguay, and Cape Verde are all mathematically capable of finishing first, while Saudi Arabia — currently propping up the group — can still climb as high as second place. The final fixtures take place on Friday: Cape Verde face Saudi Arabia at Houston's NRG Stadium at 7pm local time, while Uruguay and Spain kick off simultaneously at 6pm local time at Zapopan's Estadio Akron.

The group winners will meet the runners-up from Group J — either Austria or Algeria — in the round of 32. Whoever finishes second will face Argentina. A sufficiently strong third-placed finish could earn a side a round-of-32 berth against either Mexico or the winners of Group G, where Egypt currently lead.

Spain's permutations

Luis de la Fuente's side are in the strongest position. A win — or most likely a draw — is enough to top the group, unless Cape Verde were to beat Saudi Arabia by an extraordinary margin and overhaul Spain on goal difference. Spain cannot finish below third, which would only occur if they lose to Uruguay while Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia. Even in that scenario, Spain would almost certainly advance as one of the eight best third-placed sides.

Uruguay's permutations

A defeat for Uruguay would eliminate them from the tournament entirely — two points would not be enough to advance via the third-place rankings, and they would be overtaken by at least one of Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia. A draw guarantees Uruguay at least third place, with the possibility of second depending on what happens elsewhere. A win would see them top the group, provided Cape Verde do not also win by a greater margin.

Cape Verde's permutations

The World Cup debutants have a genuine shot at glory in this group. Winning against Saudi Arabia would guarantee their place in the round of 32 regardless of the other result, as they would overtake at least one of Spain or Uruguay. A draw would put Cape Verde second if Uruguay lose — though if Uruguay also draw, the two sides would be separated by goals scored, then team conduct score, and ultimately by FIFA world ranking if still level. A defeat would end Cape Verde's tournament.

Saudi Arabia's permutations

Saudi Arabia must beat Cape Verde to have any chance of progressing. Victory would put them second in the group unless Uruguay also beat Spain — in which case Saudi Arabia would finish third. However, four points would still offer a realistic path through the third-place rankings, and a winning margin of at least three goals would guarantee their place in the round of 32.