Nicolas Jackson has spent two seasons at Chelsea building a reputation — though not always the one he might have wanted. The Senegalese striker became synonymous with missed chances, drawing consistent criticism for his finishing. Yet with Aston Villa and Tottenham now reportedly circling, there is a compelling case that those critics have been looking at the wrong numbers all along.

The stat that changes everything

Matthew Benham, the analytically minded owner of Brentford, made a striking observation at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference earlier this year. "For a striker, getting in position is way more informative than finishing," Benham said. "There is an awful amount of randomness in finishing. If you show me two players at a similar level and they both scored 15 goals last season but one of them had twice the number of chances, I want the guy who had twice the number of chances."

Those words could have been written about Jackson. Since the start of the decade, among every player who has accumulated at least 5,000 Premier League minutes — penalties excluded — only Erling Haaland records a higher expected-goals figure per 90 minutes. Jackson is, by any measure, an elite chance creator for himself.

The problem, and Chelsea's frustration, was conversion. Jackson found the net with only 18 of his 61 big chances across his two Premier League seasons — a ratio that fell well short of the league's sharpest finishers and ultimately convinced Chelsea to move on.

Impact at Bayern Munich

A loan spell at Bayern Munich offered a fresh environment, though familiar patterns emerged. Jackson again carved out high-quality positions with regularity, finishing the season with 11 goals across all competitions — despite starting only 15 matches. In Bundesliga open-play goals per 90 minutes, only Harry Kane bettered him, averaging 0.79 to Jackson's 0.72. The gap between the European Golden Shoe winner and a player routinely criticised for his finishing is, to say the least, thought-provoking.

Bayern coach Vincent Kompany defended his striker publicly. "The guy has not done anything wrong, he trained extremely well, he won the AFCON, but there are always stories about a player or two," Kompany said. "When Harry Kane plays in your position, or Michael Olise, or Luis Díaz, it is a bit difficult. There is nothing more." Kompany reportedly pushed to keep Jackson in Munich — the stumbling block was Chelsea's asking price.

Bayern legend Lothar Matthaus confirmed as much to Sky Sports. "Kompany is convinced of Jackson's abilities and would have liked to keep him in Munich. But he is too expensive," Matthaus said.

Why Emery could be the key

For Aston Villa — who have just banked a British record £117 million from Chelsea for Morgan Rogers — the prospect of a reunion between Jackson and manager Unai Emery carries genuine intrigue. It was Emery who transformed Jackson from a raw, instinct-driven forward into the structured, intelligent striker that Chelsea later paid to acquire.

Jackson has spoken about that influence in unambiguous terms. "Unai taught me everything about football," he told Sky Sports. "When I was from Senegal, I knew how to play but I did not understand how to run on the pitch. I was just running like crazy, taking the ball and just dribbling, making my own stuff. He changed all that and made me into a different kind of player."

It was Jackson who scored the final goal of Emery's reign at Villarreal — a late winner against Almeria on an emotional evening for the club. In his farewell press conference, Emery offered a telling assessment of his striker: "He has to evolve so that his work for the team can be transformed into effectiveness." That evolution, by most accounts, remains a work in progress.

Jackson turned 25 last month. For context, Ollie Watkins has already reached 30, and Tammy Abraham — who spent time on loan at Villa last season — is 28. The raw material is considerable, the upside real, and the man best placed to unlock it may be waiting at Villa Park.