Monday's round-of-32 fixtures at the FIFA World Cup 2026 are loaded, and the early kick-off in Houston stands out above the rest. Five-time World Cup winners Brazil face Japan, a side that made a genuine impression during the group stage.

The stakes are high: the winners earn a last-16 meeting with either Ivory Coast or Norway. Brazil are clear favourites, but Japan have earned their place at this stage and will not be easy to dismiss.

How both sides arrived here

Brazil came through their group unbeaten, though not without being tested. A 1-1 draw with Morocco — 2022 semi-finalists — was their stiffest challenge, while Scotland and Haiti were beaten without too much difficulty.

Japan also finished unbeaten. An opening 2-2 draw with the Netherlands showed the resilience the Samurai Blue have made their trademark in recent tournaments, before they dismantled Tunisia 4-0. A 1-1 draw with Sweden then sent both sides through.

Japan's momentum is real

Recent results give Japan genuine reason for confidence. Last October, they defeated Brazil 3-2 — their first win over the Seleção in 14 attempts. That result is part of a run in which manager Hajime Moriyasu has steered Japan past the likes of England, Ghana, and Scotland.

Japan arrive in Houston on a 10-match unbeaten run, having scored in each of those games. Both sides netted seven times in the group stage, so goals look likely.

Brazil's attacking edge

The absence of Raphinha is a blow for Carlo Ancelotti's side, but the depth of Brazil's attacking options remains a decisive advantage. Ancelotti and Vinicius Junior share a history from their time together at Real Madrid, and that familiarity appears to be bearing fruit — Vinicius Junior scored four times in the group stage and looks sharp heading into the knockout rounds.

If Japan can stay compact and make this contest tight, they have shown they can hurt any opponent on the counter. But should Brazil open this game up into an end-to-end affair, the South Americans' extra quality and experience are likely to prove decisive in the closing stages.

Prediction

Expect a thrilling contest. Japan will push Brazil hard and contribute to an entertaining match, but Ancelotti's men should ultimately find the depth to pull clear late on. Score prediction: Brazil 3-2 Japan.