Two of the three knockout-round matches at the 2026 World Cup ended in penalty shootouts on the second evening of last-16 action — and both produced results that will spark debate about one of football's most contested tactical decisions.

Paraguay stunned Germany, winning 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw through extra-time. Hours later, Morocco edged Netherlands 3-2 in a shootout following an identical scoreline at the end of 120 minutes.

The late-substitute gamble

In recent tournaments, managers have increasingly turned to a specific strategy: introducing fresh players deep into extra-time with the express purpose of using them as penalty takers. The logic appears sound — bring on a specialist, let them settle, then send them to the spot. The data, however, tells a different story.

According to Opta, eight of the last ten players substituted on after the 115th minute at a World Cup or European Championship who then stepped up in the shootout went on to miss their kick. That is an 80 percent failure rate — a damning statistic for the tactic.

Evidence from the 2026 World Cup

Both shootouts this week provided fresh evidence against the strategy. Netherlands introduced Bournemouth forward Justin Kluivert as a substitute in the 113th minute. Kluivert went on to miss, joining two other Dutch players in failing to convert — and Netherlands were eliminated.

Paraguay also leaned on a late change, bringing on former West Ham defender Fabian Balbuena in the 122nd minute. Balbuena missed his penalty, as did one other Paraguay player — but Paraguay still had enough to beat Germany 4-3 overall.

Germany's night was more uneven. Nick Woltemade failed to score from the spot, while Nadiem Amiri and Jamal Musiala both converted. It was not enough — Germany went out.

England's mixed record

England have experienced both sides of this gamble. At Euro 2024, manager Gareth Southgate brought on Trent Alexander-Arnold and Ivan Toney during the second half of extra-time against Switzerland in the round of 16. Both scored, and England advanced — though notably both substitutions were made before the 115th minute, keeping them outside Opta's most damaging window.

But England have suffered too. In the Euro 2020 final against Italy, Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford were introduced late and both missed their penalties as England lost the shootout. Jamie Carragher also missed after being sent on as a substitute in the quarter-final defeat to Portugal at the 2006 World Cup.

The list keeps growing

The evidence piles up across tournaments. Zeki Amdouni scored for Switzerland against England at Euro 2024, and Paulo Dybala converted for Argentina in the 2022 World Cup final against France — exceptions that coaches cling to. Yet Badr Benoun and Pablo Sarabia both missed for Morocco and Spain respectively in the same tournament, Rodri missed for Spain at Euro 2020, and Simone Zaza's extraordinary miss for Italy against Germany at Euro 2016 remains one of the most memorable moments in shootout history.

The pattern is clear: the late-substitute penalty strategy carries significant risk, and the numbers suggest that, more often than not, it backfires.